The
economic news of the last few weeks has not been encouraging. In Europe,
the various national debt crises remain unresolved, with a continued
monopoly of banker-friendly austerity programs, and their predictable
consequences of rising unemployment and stagnation.
Debtor countries are
being forced into the same financial orthodoxies that prolonged the
depression of the 1920s and 30s, so we shouldn't be surprised at the
failures they will bring.
More recession may also be the future of the
countries enforcing these once-discredited policies, as weak demand
across the region represses consumer demand, investor confidence, and
government spending.
In the United States the details are different, but the main story is
the same.
The country is experiencing continuing mass unemployment (25
million Americans remain unemployed or underemployed), further collapse
in the housing market and an extremist political movement determined to
slash all government spending directed at the people who are most likely
to spend: the poor, the unemployed, and the middle classes.
The outlook
among wealthy countries is for more economic ‘weakness,’ a conclusion
supported by the plummeting stock markets of recent weeks.
Protecting bankers' and creditors' interests above all else is
foolish economic policy. It enriches one group of people at the expense
of nearly everyone else.
But these days, it's hard to get a hearing for
the view that the wealthy countries remain wealthy, that we can solve
our economic problems without making most people worse off, and that we
can also do it while addressing the much larger challenge we face:
climate change and growing ecological devastation.
So what's the alternative to slashing government programs, budget
cutting, and more concentrated wealth at the top? The centerpiece of a
new approach is to re-structure the labour market by reducing hours of
work.
That may seem counter-intuitive in a period when the mainstream
message is that we are poorer than ever and have to work harder. But the
historical record suggests it's a smart move that will create what
economists call a triple dividend: three positive outcomes from one
policy innovation.
The first benefit of hours reductions is a significant reduction in
unemployment. In the wealthy countries, many of the jobs lost in the
2008 downturn will not re-appear.
The revolution in information
technology has made many jobs unnecessary, raised labour productivity,
and undermined a good swathe of the labour market, as firms introduce
radical technological and product innovation. (And some of the jobs are
being created in low wage countries.)
This is familiar territory, as it
has been occurring since the 19th century. The buggy and barrel makers
are long gone. Toll takers and the workers in DVD factories are on their
way out. So too are household tax accountants and retail check-out
clerks.
Historically, market economies have absorbed this displaced labour in
two ways. The first is the creation of jobs in new industries making
new products. The 20th century brought automobile workers, higher
education administrators and medical personnel.
But new jobs, spurred on
by growth in GDP, are only half the story. The other mechanism for
maintaining balance in the labour market has always been
reductions in hours of work.
Without the advances of a shorter workweek,
vacation time, earlier retirement and later labour force entrance, the
economies of the OECD would never have attained the ‘golden age’ of high
employment that prevailed after the 1930s depression.
Between 1870 and
1970, hours of work fell roughly in half. These countries have
re-balanced the labour market by re-distributing work to make its
allocation fairer. We need shorter hours because it is unrealistic to
count on growth in GDP to absorb all this current and future ‘surplus’
labour.
Rich countries just never grow that rapidly. So the austerity
economics that says work longer and retire later has it exactly wrong.
But even if GDP growth
could solve the unemployment problem, it shouldn't, because the cost in
GHG
emissions is prohibitive. North America and Europe have already blown
their carbon budgets and until we re-structure energy systems, growth
isn't reconcilable with responsible emissions levels.
Here too shorter
hours of work provide a dividend. They are associated with lower
ecological and carbon footprints. Countries that work more pollute more.
That both because their scale of production is larger (the GDP effect)
and because time-stressed households and societies do things in more
carbon intensive ways than societies in which time is more abundant.
Longer hours of work lead people to travel, eat, and live faster-paced
lives, which in turn require more energy.
The third benefit of shorter hours is the time itself. As a growing
movement of ‘downshifters’ attests, short hour lifestyles allow people
to build stronger social connections, maintain their physical and mental
health, and engage in activities that are creative and meaningful.
Time
is especially valuable in rich countries where material needs can be
met for everyone, and deprivation is caused by unequal distribution of
income and wealth.
So that's the triple dividend: reduce unemployment, cut carbon
emissions, and give people quality of life. Austerity economics says we
can't afford to work less. A serious reading of our economic history
suggests we can't afford not to. (X)
Juliet Schor is Professor of Sociology at Boston College. Her most recent book is Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth (The Penguin Press 2010) and writes regularly at Economics and Society where this article first appeared.